On the subject of Greece's ongoing tourism woes, government and industry officials recently expressed sharply divergent views over trends for the coming season.

Addressing a seminar organised by the Economic and Social Commission (OKE) on the consequences of the international economic crisis on Greek tourism, Tourism Development Minister Costas Markopoulos expressed optimism over trends in 2009 and emphasised that the ministry would do everything in its power to maintain jobs in the industry.

On the other hand, OKE head Christos Polyzogopoulos and the head of the Association of Greek Tourism Enterprises (SETE), Nikos Aggelopoulos, focused on the repercussions on employees as a result of the economic crisis.

Mr. Polyzogopoulos said there was a risk of losing 90,000 jobs in the tourism sector, while Mr. Aggelopoulos said: "we haven't seen anything yet, things will become much worse."

The minister said Greece would maintain last year's ad logo and announced that this year's ad campaign would total 75 million Euros.

However, many industry insiders have been extremely critical of the ministry's marketing programme, claiming the message of the advertising does not relate to the today's financially-strapped market.   

In addition, SETE's head criticised the government for failing to launch its tourism campaign in time, and said that according to TUI's early data, travel reservations from the UK were down 25 percent; from Germany down 22 percent; from France 19 percent and from Scandinavian countries 30 percent.

A quick survey of Cretan tour operators shows early signs of a decline, but no one is speculating as to actual numbers. However, all agree that if the TUI percentages filter down to local operators, the 2009 season will be devastating.

The key indicators are the German and UK markets, which traditionally make up most of Crete's foreign arrivals.

"Right now we have 30 percent fewer bookings from Britain and 20 percent from Germany compared to this time last year," says Argyro Fili, head of the Hellenic association of travel and tourist agencies (Hatta).

No precise figures are currently available for the US market but the fall there is believed to be similar, she added.

"The game has switched to late booking . . . everybody is waiting to see what happens," Mrs. Fili said.

In another discouraging sign, the Greek statistics service ESYE last month reported a 3.2 percent drop in arrivals in the first nine months of 2008 compared to the equivalent period in 2007.

The agency also reported a 3.9 percent fall in hotel and camping reservayions.

A study released in February by EFG Eurobank, Greece's third-largest lender, warned that the country's tourist arrivals were threatened with the largest drop in nearly 20 years.

Economic slowdown in the main Western economies traditionally either coincide or are followed by "tangible" falls in tourist arrivals in Greece, the study said. It continued: "The fall in travel expenditure by foreigners in our country could be worth at least two billion euros (2.5 billion dollars) in 2009 if negative forecasts prove right."

Trying to maintain his optimistic outlook, Tourism Minister Markopoulos, while on a recent promotional tour of the US and the UK, said: "There is a good chance that the falling trend in tourism traffic in the first three months of 2009 can be reversed in the second trimester."

Since Mr. Markopoulos is Greece's third tourism minister in two years and the fourth since 2004, industry insiders feel that's a sign that the government ought to take the sector's long-term planning a bit more seriously.

The country's biggest source of income after shipping, and Crete's number one industry, tourism makes up 18 percent of the Greek economy and employs over 850,000 people directly or indirectly according to the tourism ministry.

Tourism proceeds in 2007 earned the Greek economy over 11.4 billion euros according to the Bank of Greece.

As if this news wasn't bad enough, in a related disheartening story, Greece dropped two places in the Travel & Tourism Competitiveness Report presented by the World Economic Forum, as it slid to 24th this year among 133 countries. Cyprus and Belgium both overtook Greece.

Greece’s main problem is deemed to be the regulatory framework as it hampers the growth of tourism.

Recommendations to Greece include improving infrastructure, protecting the environment, enhancing the business and regulatory framework and further upgrading human resources.

The big question: How many beach chairs
will be occupied this summer?